The law of unintended consequences
People are complicated. Life is complicated. Ecosystems are complicated. And despite our best efforts or intentions, we have a remarkable history of messing things up in unexpected ways.
One simple theory for why this may be is that unintended consequences are likely to happen whenever we try to regulate a complex system by using a simple system. This so often happens in any kind of large-scale or government attempt to control something within a complex system using relatively simple programs, regulations, laws, policies or other actions. Things will happen that we didn’t anticipate.
Examples abound:
- A policy of suppressing forest fires that goes on to cause even greater fires.
- An attempt to reduce traffic in Bogotá by restricting who could drive each day based on licence plates that led people to simply buy more cars.
- More open workplaces that cause people to behave more privately: the transparency paradox.
- Elimination of predators that leads to the proliferation of grazing animals and a reduction in diversity.
- The effects of literally any dam built anywhere.
- What happens when you change software.
- Desire paths
- The Streisand effect
- The Diderot effect
- Or social distancing policies that results in outdoor natural spaces being crammed with people at weekends.
- And on, and on.
Often, as with some of these, the outcome can be the opposite of what you intended, known as the cobra effect. Controlling complex systems is difficult.
