The Iceberg Model
Icebergs make powerful metaphors because much of what matters is hidden. Despite knowing the maths, it’s still genuinely surprising and sometimes hard to believe that 90% of an iceberg is beneath the surface. Icebergs are, therefore, a super metaphor for when visible outcomes are shaped by unseen forces. And where we see just a small amount that is built on top of a whole lot that’s out of sight. Even better if this “whole lot more” is unexpected. In my experience, this fits a lot of things. It’s a fair representation, for example, for the unseen work that goes into near enough anything. Icebergs have been mobilised in the name of better understanding psychology, culture, and, in this case, systems. I like the model because it prompts us to question what could be “under the surface” and, in terms of observed behaviour, what’s driving what we see? This version of the iceberg model comes from the work and teaching of the systems thinker Donella Meadows and the Academy for Systems Change. Layers of the Systems Thinking Iceberg Model The four layers of this iceberg are: Above the surface Events What is happening? What are the facts? What behaviours do you see? Below the Surface Patterns Are the events connected by trends over time? Do events relate to each other? Structures What influences the patterns you see? Think about routines, incentives, environments, organisations, policies, and rituals. Mental Models What are the values, assumptions and beliefs people hold that shape the system? The deeper down you go, the more leverage you have to create change. For example, changing someone’s attitudes and beliefs about eating will have far-reaching effects on a person’s behaviours around meals. Example of the Iceberg Model What might this look like in practice? Event A child steals their sibling’s toys. Patterns The behaviour only started recently. It tends to happen after swimming lessons or before bed. Structures They’re tired and hungry after swimming, lowering their tolerance and patience. Parents are often busy preparing dinner. The younger child gets more attention. Mental Models Older children are expected to be more self-sufficient. “When I act up, I get attention.” Overscheduling activities. Or Event A colleague is late to a meeting, again. Patterns They used to be on time for meetings. Being late to the first meeting in the morning is most common. Structures Meetings rarely start on time. There are no consequences to being late. Some people have many meetings, others have few, and so don’t pay close attention to the calendar. Mental Models Don’t value the meetings. They don’t understand the impact it has on others. Promptness is respect and required vs promptness doesn’t matter if you get results. In each case, looking below the surface reveals what’s really driving the behaviour. How to Use the Iceberg Model Start with an event or situation you want to understand. Work down through the iceberg, asking yourself questions at each level and writing the answers. It doesn’t have to be a big exercise. Write down patterns you see about the event and those that might be related to it. Think about what structures might be causing it. Consider physical things, organisations, policies, and rituals that all may be contributing. Write these down. Then dig into the source of these structures. What beliefs enable them? What values align with them? What attitudes or expectations keep them going? You don’t need to be exhaustive — even a quick pass can reveal useful insights. Many solutions focus on the events. But lasting change often comes from addressing issues below the surface. I made some blank versions of these with the blue and on white that you can use to fill out your own icebergs: Iceberg model templates Related Ideas to the Iceberg Model Systems, thinking and systems thinking: Pace layers Rich pictures 9 Windows Powers of 10 The S-Curve Data - Information - Knowledge - Wisdom Icebergs: Overnight success Iceberg orientation — for the 90% bit Buoyancy I created this iceberg model illustration as one of a series of visuals for Kaine Ugwu about Systems Thinking.Icebergs make powerful metaphors because much of what matters is hidden. Despite knowing the maths, it’s still genuinely surprising and sometimes hard to believe that 90% of an iceberg is beneath the surface. Icebergs are, therefore, a super metaphor for when visible outcomes are shaped by unseen forces. And where we see just a small amount that is built on top of a whole lot that’s out of sight. Even better if this “whole lot more” is unexpected. In my experience, this fits a lot of things. It’s a fair representation, for example, for the unseen work that goes into near enough anything. Icebergs have been mobilised in the name of better understanding psychology, culture, and, in this case, systems. I like the model because it prompts us to question what could be “under the surface” and, in terms of observed behaviour, what’s driving what we see? This version of the iceberg model comes from the work and teaching of the systems thinker Donella Meadows and the Academy for Systems Change. Layers of the Systems Thinking Iceberg Model The four layers of this iceberg are: Above the surface Events What is happening? What are the facts? What behaviours do you see? Below the Surface Patterns Are the events connected by trends over time? Do events relate to each other? Structures What influences the patterns you see? Think about routines, incentives, environments, organisations, policies, and rituals. Mental Models What are the values, assumptions and beliefs people hold that shape the system? The deeper down you go, the more leverage you have to create change. For example, changing someone’s attitudes and beliefs about eating will have far-reaching effects on a person’s behaviours around meals. Example of the Iceberg Model What might this look like in practice? Event A child steals their sibling’s toys. Patterns The behaviour only started recently. It tends to happen after swimming lessons or before bed. Structures They’re tired and hungry after swimming, lowering their tolerance and patience. Parents are often busy preparing dinner. The younger child gets more attention. Mental Models Older children are expected to be more self-sufficient. “When I act up, I get attention.” Overscheduling activities. Or Event A colleague is late to a meeting, again. Patterns They used to be on time for meetings. Being late to the first meeting in the morning is most common. Structures Meetings rarely start on time. There are no consequences to being late. Some people have many meetings, others have few, and so don’t pay close attention to the calendar. Mental Models Don’t value the meetings. They don’t understand the impact it has on others. Promptness is respect and required vs promptness doesn’t matter if you get results. In each case, looking below the surface reveals what’s really driving the behaviour. How to Use the Iceberg Model Start with an event or situation you want to understand. Work down through the iceberg, asking yourself questions at each level and writing the answers. It doesn’t have to be a big exercise. Write down patterns you see about the event and those that might be related to it. Think about what structures might be causing it. Consider physical things, organisations, policies, and rituals that all may be contributing. Write these down. Then dig into the source of these structures. What beliefs enable them? What values align with them? What attitudes or expectations keep them going? You don’t need to be exhaustive — even a quick pass can reveal useful insights. Many solutions focus on the events. But lasting change often comes from addressing issues below the surface. I made some blank versions of these with the blue and on white that you can use to fill out your own icebergs: Iceberg model templates Related Ideas to the Iceberg Model Systems, thinking and systems thinking: Pace layers Rich pictures 9 Windows Powers of 10 The S-Curve Data - Information - Knowledge - Wisdom Icebergs: Overnight success Iceberg orientation — for the 90% bit Buoyancy I created this iceberg model illustration as one of a series of visuals for Kaine Ugwu about Systems Thinking.WWW
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