The Newsletter Paradox: Your newsletter grows when you do nothing

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Here's a curious and unsettling paradox that you might experience if you choose to write a newsletter:

When you do nothing, people join, and your list grows. When you send an email to your list, your list shrinks and people leave.

It can seem that people like it when you do nothing, and people don't like it when you publish.

There's a fair chance this newsletter would reach more people if I hadn't published anything for a year.

The Sawtooth Shape of Subscriber Growth

The chart of my subscribers over time looks like a sawtooth. Every growth period is me doing nothing. Every dip—people unsubscribing—is me sending out my work 😅

It can seem like working hard and sending out your best work actually drives people away.

A Familiar Pattern for Marketers

If you're an email marketer, you're likely familiar with this phenomenon. Your website works hard to drive sign-ups. And when you send out mail, some people buy, but others unsubscribe.

Every communication on a list or newsletter is a filtering moment—another chance for a reader to decide, "This is not for me," or "Yes, I still like this." It's also the only practical time to leave. I wonder at the sheer number of lists I must be on, but that aren't sending, and I actually can't unsubscribe because they haven't sent me anything with a link to do it.

It's a little like my sampling bias sketch in reverse—if people can't easily unsubscribe without receiving a mail, you'll only see unsubscribes when you send.

Much like when you ask people to enter an email address on a business site, a goal is to be clear enough about what people will get, so that when you deliver it matches expectations and people stay.

Promise vs Selection

Signing up is the Promise of receiving something interesting in the future.

Every time you receive something, there's another Selection moment—Do I want this? Hope vs Reality.

Each send is like a test to see if you and they are still a good fit. If you're writing a newsletter, the longer people stay, in principle, the better the fit.

And, as in business, I learned not to take it personally. When people leave, it doesn't mean what you are doing is bad. It's not personal, it's just not for them. And other times, more prosaically, circumstances change, and what was a good fit just isn't needed anymore.

So it’s not really a paradox, but it can certainly feel like one.

Don't lose heart.

A Note on Substack

Sending emails feels very different from posting on social media (I also post new sketches on various social platforms).

On social platforms, you literally can't ignore engagement metrics: likes, reposts, shares, comments—and most people don't want to (sort of). They can be either very motivating—"Wow, people loved that one!"—or demotivating—"I thought that one was great. Why did nobody like it??" Either way, you get a rough and skewed measure of interest in what you're doing.

But don't take it as truth. For example, something I post that received no likes or interactions is then posted by someone else and takes off. Social media gives you a very distorted, if not downright misleading, view of what's valuable.

Contrast that with sending an email newsletter. While a post on social might rack up likes and shares, with email, you often get nothing. I would send an email to 20,000 people and get tumbleweeds (apart from, inevitably, unsubscribes). Did people like it? Did people hate it?

But from time to time, instead of likes or thumbs up, with email I receive wonderful, personal, thoughtful replies, notes and stories from individuals—something you will rarely, if ever, receive through social platforms.

Substack (the platform I used to send this when I first published it) goes some way to bridging email and social. I can send an email like this one and receive personal replies straight to me. And I can also get a vague and imperfect idea of what people think about it through likes and comments.

By the way, if you ever want to click the "like" button on an email, I appreciate it and it probably helps more people find this newsletter, but no obligation.

Substack feels different from both traditional email and social platforms.

A Personal Note on This Project

I've wondered about this curious paradox for years.

On a personal note, this project didn't start as a business venture. I’ve always seen it as a way to reach people who might share my interests.

Nobody is one-dimensional, so I know that you won’t care about or like everything I send. You’re not me, and I’m not you.

I’ve been “building an email list” slowly for over ten years. But that’s a very impersonal way to say it. This project has connected me with so many wonderful, generous, and fascinating people through this journey of putting work out in the world. It’s nice to find others who do share some of my interests about the world.

I know that some people have been reading these for the whole journey—wow, thank you. And for others, this might be your first, and you might be about to throw the letter in the bin like the person in the sketch, or dig into the archive, or wait for the next one. All of these are fine with me.

And if you're writing a newsletter or growing a list yourself, I'm partly sharing this to show that this is an entirely normal, if not required, part of reaching people who want what you're offering. Keep at it!

Related Ideas to the Newsletter Paradox

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The Subscription Trap

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Variable Rewards

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Murphy's Law

Quote and advice from Jane Goodall's mother: If there's something you really want, you're going to have to work really hard, take advantage of opportunity and, above all, never give up.

And, above all, never give up

Subscription traps are contracts that are easy to sign up for and hard to cancel. Subscription traps are sneaky. Just like Hotel California, "You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave." What a Subscription Trap Looks Like Sometimes, you may go from a free trial to a paid subscription without realising it. Sometimes, you may go months without noticing you're still paying for a subscription. Your contract may renew for a full year before you spot it. And when you try to cancel, you may find yourself jumping through hoops—compared to the few clicks it took you to sign up. My experiences include: Searching for a cancel link online Turning to a customer support chat, which turns out to be a chatbot Finding the chatbot can't cancel for me or, more often, links me to the help article where I started and found I couldn't cancel online Eventually, being transferred to an agent and having to repeat everything Being given a phone number to call Finding they're closed because it's the weekend Scheduling a reminder to call back on Monday between meetings Calling, waiting in a queue (as opposed to the rapid response for prospective customers) Running out of time and forgetting to try again until the office is closed. <sigh> Perhaps you'll recognise some of this. Sludge and Why it Matters The kind of bureaucracy and red tape you encounter when trying to cancel or do other things like claim on health insurance is sometimes called sludge. It's the friction stops us from getting things done. In 2014, the UK government thought that unwanted subscriptions were costing people £1.6 billion a year—nearly 10 million of 155 million active subscriptions. They've held a consultation for measures to help avoid subscription traps and scams. California, for example, already has legislation requiring companies to offer online cancellation if they allow online sign-up. Best practice includes Providing clear information about contracts before entering Reminders before moving from trials or discount periods to full-price Reminders before subscriptions renew Making it simple to cancel Some Subscriptions are More Slippery than Others We're less likely to get trapped in some types of subscription. If we subscribe to a box of groceries that appears at our door, we'll trip over the box rather than forget about it. But online-only services or access-based platforms easily slip into the background. You may not notice they're still ticking along if you don't actively visit them. The only trace might be buried in your bank statement—monthly or even annual. Economist Neal Mahoney and colleagues found a neat way to spot the subscription trap in action (pdf). They looked at cancellation rates over time and noticed something curious: when people's payment cards expired, they often didn't bother to restart the subscription with new card details. That simple disruption—a forced pause—was enough for many people to realise they didn't need the service after all. Incentives and Legislation I've been on both sides of the subscription trap. It might be deliberate on behalf of a company. However, it can also be a product of incentives and environment. Without new customer growth, a business doesn't last long. So, there's a lot of incentive to work on streamlined sign-up and onboarding. Hopefully, effort also goes into building a great product that makes people want to stay. However, once someone has decided to leave, there's often less incentive to make it a great experience, short of avoiding bad reviews. I think it's generally not malicious—see Hanlon's razor. People know that cancelling isn't as easy as it should be, but they're measured on other targets that increase revenue or decrease costs. New projects are launched to do the same rather than "sink" money into making it easier for people to leave. There will also often be a new customer onboarding team and no offboarding team at all (see Conway's Law). This makes it a natural place for legislation to help out us punters just looking to cancel without spending all morning on the phone. The Roach Motel The subscription trap is similar to the unsubscribe roach motel anti-pattern for email subscriptions. A roach motel is a trap for cockroaches which is easy to get in and hard to get out. Harry Brignull, author of Deceptive Patterns, gives a great example of contrasting subscribe and unsubscribe steps in his article on the unsubscribe roach motel. Don't get Caught! If you want to save money, reviewing your subscriptions and knowing what you're spending is a smart first step. We have a spreadsheet with all active monthly payments. A quick scan makes it easy to see what we still use or don't. And yes, battle through the sludge and bureaucracy—it's worth it! Related Ideas to the Subscription Trap Also see: Dark patterns - using design to deceive The Shirky Principle - institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution Goodhart's Law - when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure Campbell's Law - the more any quantitative social indicator is used for decision-making, the more likely it is to be distorted Conway's Law - software reflects the structure of the teams that built it You Get What You Measure Don't ask the barber if you need a haircut Amazon and Uber's Virtuous Cycle for Mega Growth The Business Flywheel For interviews with Mahoney and Thaler (of sludge and nudge), see (once again) Freakonomics, Sludge, Part 2: Is Government the Problem, or the Solution?Subscription traps are contracts that are easy to sign up for and hard to cancel. Subscription traps are sneaky. Just like Hotel California, "You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave." What a Subscription Trap Looks Like Sometimes, you may go from a free trial to a paid subscription without realising it. Sometimes, you may go months without noticing you're still paying for a subscription. Your contract may renew for a full year before you spot it. And when you try to cancel, you may find yourself jumping through hoops—compared to the few clicks it took you to sign up. My experiences include: Searching for a cancel link online Turning to a customer support chat, which turns out to be a chatbot Finding the chatbot can't cancel for me or, more often, links me to the help article where I started and found I couldn't cancel online Eventually, being transferred to an agent and having to repeat everything Being given a phone number to call Finding they're closed because it's the weekend Scheduling a reminder to call back on Monday between meetings Calling, waiting in a queue (as opposed to the rapid response for prospective customers) Running out of time and forgetting to try again until the office is closed. <sigh> Perhaps you'll recognise some of this. Sludge and Why it Matters The kind of bureaucracy and red tape you encounter when trying to cancel or do other things like claim on health insurance is sometimes called sludge. It's the friction stops us from getting things done. In 2014, the UK government thought that unwanted subscriptions were costing people £1.6 billion a year—nearly 10 million of 155 million active subscriptions. They've held a consultation for measures to help avoid subscription traps and scams. California, for example, already has legislation requiring companies to offer online cancellation if they allow online sign-up. Best practice includes Providing clear information about contracts before entering Reminders before moving from trials or discount periods to full-price Reminders before subscriptions renew Making it simple to cancel Some Subscriptions are More Slippery than Others We're less likely to get trapped in some types of subscription. If we subscribe to a box of groceries that appears at our door, we'll trip over the box rather than forget about it. But online-only services or access-based platforms easily slip into the background. You may not notice they're still ticking along if you don't actively visit them. The only trace might be buried in your bank statement—monthly or even annual. Economist Neal Mahoney and colleagues found a neat way to spot the subscription trap in action (pdf). They looked at cancellation rates over time and noticed something curious: when people's payment cards expired, they often didn't bother to restart the subscription with new card details. That simple disruption—a forced pause—was enough for many people to realise they didn't need the service after all. Incentives and Legislation I've been on both sides of the subscription trap. It might be deliberate on behalf of a company. However, it can also be a product of incentives and environment. Without new customer growth, a business doesn't last long. So, there's a lot of incentive to work on streamlined sign-up and onboarding. Hopefully, effort also goes into building a great product that makes people want to stay. However, once someone has decided to leave, there's often less incentive to make it a great experience, short of avoiding bad reviews. I think it's generally not malicious—see Hanlon's razor. People know that cancelling isn't as easy as it should be, but they're measured on other targets that increase revenue or decrease costs. New projects are launched to do the same rather than "sink" money into making it easier for people to leave. There will also often be a new customer onboarding team and no offboarding team at all (see Conway's Law). This makes it a natural place for legislation to help out us punters just looking to cancel without spending all morning on the phone. The Roach Motel The subscription trap is similar to the unsubscribe roach motel anti-pattern for email subscriptions. A roach motel is a trap for cockroaches which is easy to get in and hard to get out. Harry Brignull, author of Deceptive Patterns, gives a great example of contrasting subscribe and unsubscribe steps in his article on the unsubscribe roach motel. Don't get Caught! If you want to save money, reviewing your subscriptions and knowing what you're spending is a smart first step. We have a spreadsheet with all active monthly payments. A quick scan makes it easy to see what we still use or don't. And yes, battle through the sludge and bureaucracy—it's worth it! Related Ideas to the Subscription Trap Also see: Dark patterns - using design to deceive The Shirky Principle - institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution Goodhart's Law - when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure Campbell's Law - the more any quantitative social indicator is used for decision-making, the more likely it is to be distorted Conway's Law - software reflects the structure of the teams that built it You Get What You Measure Don't ask the barber if you need a haircut Amazon and Uber's Virtuous Cycle for Mega Growth The Business Flywheel For interviews with Mahoney and Thaler (of sludge and nudge), see (once again) Freakonomics, Sludge, Part 2: Is Government the Problem, or the Solution?

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