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3,500 Lifetime reads

How many books will you read in a lifetime? If you’re a pretty dedicated reader, you may be able to get through one book a week, so roughly 50 books a year. Over 70 years of reading at that pace, you’d read around 3,500 books—counting comfort rereads like Harry Potter for the third time. I only know a few people who actually manage to read like that, so presumably, for most of us, the likely book reads we will manage is much less than that. To put that number in context, your local bookstore has around 30,000 books. So if you were to use your entire life’s reading in that store, you’d still only be a bit over 1/10th of the way through. That’s a lot of books you didn’t even get a chance to start. I won’t deny that 3,500 books is a lot of books, but whatever you do, there will be far more books that you just don’t have time to get to than those you do find time for. So, like for movies, I think it seems wise to be at least a little thoughtful about what books you choose to pick up, and what books you decide to go on to finish. As the author James Joyce said: "Life is too short to read a bad book." P.S. In the course of making this, I learned that in 2010 the Google Books team estimated there were around 130 million books to choose from.…How many books will you read in a lifetime? If you’re a pretty dedicated reader, you may be able to get through one book a week, so roughly 50 books a year. Over 70 years of reading at that pace, you’d read around 3,500 books—counting comfort rereads like Harry Potter for the third time. I only know a few people who actually manage to read like that, so presumably, for most of us, the likely book reads we will manage is much less than that. To put that number in context, your local bookstore has around 30,000 books. So if you were to use your entire life’s reading in that store, you’d still only be a bit over 1/10th of the way through. That’s a lot of books you didn’t even get a chance to start. I won’t deny that 3,500 books is a lot of books, but whatever you do, there will be far more books that you just don’t have time to get to than those you do find time for. So, like for movies, I think it seems wise to be at least a little thoughtful about what books you choose to pick up, and what books you decide to go on to finish. As the author James Joyce said: "Life is too short to read a bad book." P.S. In the course of making this, I learned that in 2010 the Google Books team estimated there were around 130 million books to choose from.

19 Apr 2020

The liar paradox

A favourite of our kids is to play opposites day. It usually starts with something simple like where we say “No, they can’t have chocolate for breakfast,” and they then announce that it’s opposites day so that means they can have chocolate for breakfast. Then I say, but if it’s opposites day then that means you just said it’s not opposites day. Then they say, if it’s not opposites day then what they said is true so it is opposites day. After a while we end up being late for school. This is a version of the liar paradox, also known as the Epimenides paradox after a chap from Crete who is supposed to have announced that all Cretans are liars. There are a bunch of versions of the paradox including the simpler one: this sentence is a lie. Some other paradoxes: Jevon’s paradox the coastline paradox the Abilene paradox…A favourite of our kids is to play opposites day. It usually starts with something simple like where we say “No, they can’t have chocolate for breakfast,” and they then announce that it’s opposites day so that means they can have chocolate for breakfast. Then I say, but if it’s opposites day then that means you just said it’s not opposites day. Then they say, if it’s not opposites day then what they said is true so it is opposites day. After a while we end up being late for school. This is a version of the liar paradox, also known as the Epimenides paradox after a chap from Crete who is supposed to have announced that all Cretans are liars. There are a bunch of versions of the paradox including the simpler one: this sentence is a lie. Some other paradoxes: Jevon’s paradox the coastline paradox the Abilene paradox

11 Apr 2020

The Bullwhip Effect

How small changes in customer demand can produce considerable disruption upstream in the supply chain. For instance, a sudden surge in the buying of toilet paper may cause retailers to put in larger orders to make sure they can keep up with demand. Manufacturers, in turn, may put in even larger orders for raw materials to make sure they don’t get caught out. In the meantime, customers had bought all the toilet paper they ever needed and demand suddenly dropped causing retailers to cancel all their orders, manufacturers to halt production and suppliers to be left with big stockpiles of unwanted raw materials. I learned about the bullwhip effect from Tomas Tunguz where he considers economic effects of the coronavirus. He explains it with a brewery example in his article on proxy metrics for startups.…How small changes in customer demand can produce considerable disruption upstream in the supply chain. For instance, a sudden surge in the buying of toilet paper may cause retailers to put in larger orders to make sure they can keep up with demand. Manufacturers, in turn, may put in even larger orders for raw materials to make sure they don’t get caught out. In the meantime, customers had bought all the toilet paper they ever needed and demand suddenly dropped causing retailers to cancel all their orders, manufacturers to halt production and suppliers to be left with big stockpiles of unwanted raw materials. I learned about the bullwhip effect from Tomas Tunguz where he considers economic effects of the coronavirus. He explains it with a brewery example in his article on proxy metrics for startups.

5 Apr 2020

Solar System Planets illustration: shows just how far away the outer planets like Uranus and Neptune really are from us here, peering up at the sky from Earth.

Solar system planets — distances to scale

It’s pretty hard to get to grips with the scale of the solar system when Venus, the closest planet, feels really far already. But we’re practically squished together compared to Uranus and Neptune — they are a really, really, really long way away. James O'Donoghue has made some brilliant videos about the solar system that explain this and more.…

28 Mar 2020

Equinox

On the equinox there is nearly exactly 12 hours of daylight and night — the day and night are perfectly balanced. On these days the sun rises almost due East and sets due West. The Spring equinox and Fall equinox are the transition between the seasons of Winter to Spring or Summer to Fall, depending on if your days are getting longer or shorter. The other seasons transition at the solstices. Technically, the equinox is the instant “the plane of Earth’s equator passes through the center of the Sun.” (wikipedia) This usually happens around the 20 March and 23 September. The equinox exists due to the tilt of the Earth. Also see: Seasons Solstice…On the equinox there is nearly exactly 12 hours of daylight and night — the day and night are perfectly balanced. On these days the sun rises almost due East and sets due West. The Spring equinox and Fall equinox are the transition between the seasons of Winter to Spring or Summer to Fall, depending on if your days are getting longer or shorter. The other seasons transition at the solstices. Technically, the equinox is the instant “the plane of Earth’s equator passes through the center of the Sun.” (wikipedia) This usually happens around the 20 March and 23 September. The equinox exists due to the tilt of the Earth. Also see: Seasons Solstice

21 Mar 2020

Flatten the Curve illustration: 4 different containment strategies for a contagion outbreak and their expected effect on the number of cases detected over time are shown through a series of distribution curves.

Flatten the curve of an outbreak

Writing this in the middle(?) of the coronavirus outbreak I thought it might be interesting to share these charts, created from the simulations in the excellent Washington Post article “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’” by Harry Stevens. The charts represent different strategies for containment and mitigation of the effects of a contagious outbreak. Trying to quarantine an area — where it is difficult to attain complete quarantine — delays the effect of an outbreak somewhat, but once released the impact is still significant with a potentially high peak of cases. Social-distancing — staying away from each other to reduce the chance of infecting others if you are infected and minimise the chance of infecting yourself — in both the bottom scenarios in the simulation manages to both delay the onset of an outbreak and reduce the peak. Not included in this simple simulation is that reducing peak infections in particular helps the healthcare system effectively treat and care for those who are infected, and look after its healthcare workers. When healthcare is not overwhelmed this further minimises both the spread of a disease and fatality rate. Read the article, run your own simulations, and maybe consider supporting the Washington Post, here: “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to 'flatten the curve’”. Disclaimer: I am not a public health professional. These charts are from my results of the simulations in the article and the simulations represent a simplified, though instructive I think, view of an outbreak and these containment methods. HT: Slava Kremerman…Writing this in the middle(?) of the coronavirus outbreak I thought it might be interesting to share these charts, created from the simulations in the excellent Washington Post article “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’” by Harry Stevens. The charts represent different strategies for containment and mitigation of the effects of a contagious outbreak. Trying to quarantine an area — where it is difficult to attain complete quarantine — delays the effect of an outbreak somewhat, but once released the impact is still significant with a potentially high peak of cases. Social-distancing — staying away from each other to reduce the chance of infecting others if you are infected and minimise the chance of infecting yourself — in both the bottom scenarios in the simulation manages to both delay the onset of an outbreak and reduce the peak. Not included in this simple simulation is that reducing peak infections in particular helps the healthcare system effectively treat and care for those who are infected, and look after its healthcare workers. When healthcare is not overwhelmed this further minimises both the spread of a disease and fatality rate. Read the article, run your own simulations, and maybe consider supporting the Washington Post, here: “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to 'flatten the curve’”. Disclaimer: I am not a public health professional. These charts are from my results of the simulations in the article and the simulations represent a simplified, though instructive I think, view of an outbreak and these containment methods. HT: Slava Kremerman

15 Mar 2020

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