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Fact tennis

Fact Tennis illustration: two individuals with tennis racquets knock unproductive, point-scoring arguments back and forth over a pile of laundry.

There are both constructive and unproductive ways to argue. One classic unproductive style is what Philippa Perry, in The Book You Wish Your Parents Had Read , calls fact tennis. With fact tennis, the goal can seem more like scoring points over your opponent rather than actually finding a workable solution — facts are hit back and forth until one person wins when the other has no more reasons left to counter with. But of course the argument isn't resolved and the result is a hollow victory and a still frustrated loser.

For a more productive argument we can reframe from winning to understanding — we can seek to share how we feel about it, and to understand how the other person feels about the conflict and their point of view, and take that into consideration. When we have a greater understanding we can move forward together to find a workable solution. As Philippa explains "Finding out about differences and working through them is about understanding and compromise, not about winning."

Published 21 Feb 2021

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Survivorship Bias illustration: two analysts observe bullet damage, depicted by red dots, on a fighter plane returning from battle. They propose that heavier armour is added to all aircraft in the most hit areas of the plane. A third onlooker wonders whether this surviving plane tells a different story in that it returned because the most vulnerable areas weren't hit. Maybe heavier armour should be added to those areas?

Survivorship bias

What is Self-serving bias example explained: two tennis players think on their contrasting fortunes, the winner proud of their athleticism (character), and the loser blaming the umpire (the situation).

Self-serving bias

The side of a pyramid of needs: physiological, safety, love-belonging, esteem, self-actualization

Maslow's hierarchy of needs

The Pyramid Principle - Barbara Minto: a muddled message of a burst water main becomes clear that the school is closed when someone uses the pyramid principle

The Pyramid Principle

Catch drilling dust with a post-it illustration: with one fold along its length, a post-it note is stuck to the wall creating a little shelf to catch all the dust from a drill boring a hole in the wall just above.

Catch drilling dust with a Post it

Cognitive bias, heuristic, logical fallacy: hidden features of the mind

So the story goes, as told by Stephen Sigler, Nature May 1989: "The US military studied fighter planes returning from missions to try to improve their survival rate and were considering adding heavy armour to those parts of the plane that tended to show the greatest concentration of hits from enemy fire, until statisticians pointed out the fallacy of that argument. The more vulnerable parts of the plane were those with the fewest hits; planes hit there tended not to return at all. The single most vulnerable part, the pilot’s head, was without serious scar in the sample of planes that returned." It’s easy to draw correlations from what we see in front of us. But what we see usually represents just a small part of what has happened. Focusing on the evidence we can easily see at the expense of that we can’t leads to survivorship bias. To say it another way, when Bill Gates drops out of college and starts Microsoft it might seem like dropping out is a path to success for others too, but that ignores all the dropouts who didn’t create Microsofts and consequently you didn’t hear about. Silent evidence — the evidence that we don’t or can’t easily choose to consider — is a term from Nicholas Nassim Talleb. When trying to discover the veracity of the planes story I enjoyed Bill Casselman’s American Mathematical Society article on The Legend of Abraham Wald. The postscript points to some of the source behind the story including a mention of Stephen Sigler’s letter in Nature quoted above. I covered survivorship bias before, but I like this story so much I thought it was worth doing again.…So the story goes, as told by Stephen Sigler, Nature May 1989: "The US military studied fighter planes returning from missions to try to improve their survival rate and were considering adding heavy armour to those parts of the plane that tended to show the greatest concentration of hits from enemy fire, until statisticians pointed out the fallacy of that argument. The more vulnerable parts of the plane were those with the fewest hits; planes hit there tended not to return at all. The single most vulnerable part, the pilot’s head, was without serious scar in the sample of planes that returned." It’s easy to draw correlations from what we see in front of us. But what we see usually represents just a small part of what has happened. Focusing on the evidence we can easily see at the expense of that we can’t leads to survivorship bias. To say it another way, when Bill Gates drops out of college and starts Microsoft it might seem like dropping out is a path to success for others too, but that ignores all the dropouts who didn’t create Microsofts and consequently you didn’t hear about. Silent evidence — the evidence that we don’t or can’t easily choose to consider — is a term from Nicholas Nassim Talleb. When trying to discover the veracity of the planes story I enjoyed Bill Casselman’s American Mathematical Society article on The Legend of Abraham Wald. The postscript points to some of the source behind the story including a mention of Stephen Sigler’s letter in Nature quoted above. I covered survivorship bias before, but I like this story so much I thought it was worth doing again.

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