People are complicated. Life is complicated. Ecosystems are complicated. And despite our best efforts or intentions, we have a remarkable history of messing things up in unexpected ways.

One simple theory for why this may be is that unintended consequences are likely to happen whenever we try to regulate a complex system by using a simple system. This so often happens in any kind of large-scale or government attempt to control something within a complex system using relatively simple programs, regulations, laws, policies or other actions. Things will happen that we didn’t anticipate.

A policy of suppressing forest fires that goes on to cause even greater fires.

An attempt to reduce traffic in Bogotá by restricting who could drive each day based on licence plates that led people to simply buy more cars.

More open workplaces that cause people to behave more privately: the transparency paradox.

Elimination of predators that leads to the proliferation of grazing animals and a reduction in diversity.

The effects of literally any dam built anywhere.

Or social distancing policies that results in outdoor natural spaces being crammed with people at weekends.

Often, as with some of these, the outcome can be the opposite of what you intended, known as the cobra effect. Controlling complex systems is difficult.

The law of unintended consequences

This is generally the source of much confusion, even amongst those who live over here.

If you look carefully at the description of the United Kingdom (on a passport say), you’ll see it’s the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland". So the UK is both of those.

Great Britain is the largest island in the British Isles and includes the three countries: England, Scotland and Wales.

The British Isles is the group of islands as a whole, including all of Ireland.

The British Isles also include several significant islands that are part of Scotland, such as the Hebrides (Inner and Outer), and the Northern Isles of both Orkney and Shetland. It also encloses the Isle of Man, which sits in the Irish Sea between England and Northern Island and is actually a self-governing British Crown Dependency with its own parliament and government.

For a little more subtlety, there's the term the British Islands (as opposed to Isles), which includes the UK, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, which sit closer to France.

For much further confusion, think for a moment why there’s a UK passport, Great Britain in the Olympic games, and in football, we compete as England, Wales, Scotland and N. Ireland separately. 🤔

Great Britain and the United Kingdom: What’s the difference?

In direct democracy the people vote directly to create the laws, rules and regulations and such. In representative democracy, the people instead vote to elect a representative, who will then either act directly, or vote with other elected representatives to create the laws, rules and regulations and such. Most democracies are a form of representative democracy as I understand it, with the occasional instance of direct democracy thrown in, as in say, a referendum.

Direct and representative democracy

Pace Layers is the brilliant observation of Stewart Brand that different aspects of the world change at different speeds.

So, Fashion and art change and cycle faster than Commerce, which changes faster than Infrastructure, and in turn, Governance, Culture and finally, Nature.

The outer layers tend to innovate faster and so pull along the slower-changing layers. At the same time, the slower layers also stabilise the faster layers, reducing the chances of chaos.

At the boundaries, you get constructive turbulence, say, between self-driving cars and Governance or between legislation trying to keep up with the growth of electric scooters. Or how the growth in video streaming (Commerce) needs Internet Infrastructure to come along with it.

As a framework for thinking about big, complex things, I find it quite handy.

Government sketches