The Lucretius problem

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The Lucretius problem is our tendency to believe that the worst possible thing that can happen is the worst possible thing we know has happened. The name was given by Nicolas Taleb in his book Antifragile .

So, should we plan to stress test an investment portfolio, for example, we might test it against how it fared in the worst market crash. Or stress test a building for the biggest known earthquake or a nuclear reactor for the biggest known tsunami. And yet, when each of these events happened, they were bigger than what had come before, and the same could happen again.

Lucretius was a Roman philosopher who wrote that:

"The fool believes that the tallest mountain in the world will be equal to the tallest one he has observed."

Also known as The Lucretius underestimation.

See other sketchplanations on cognitive biases.

Published 17 Mar 2018

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Human risk

The Finger-dip Test illustration: a finger is pushed into the soil of a healthy, green houseplant down to around the first knuckle. Where the soil is found to be dry, the owner of said finger tops it up with water. Where the soil is found to be moist, they sit back and enjoy a good book in an armchair next to the plant.

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Schadenfreude

Eponym

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In Don Norman’s classic book The Design of Everyday Things, Don gives an example of how to break into an office: just turn up at the door with a bunch of unwieldy computer equipment that looks difficult to carry and ask someone if they can open the door for you. Generally, someone will. Which goes to show no matter how well your system is designed, how seemingly impregnable your defences are, or how robust your processes, human risk — people doing things they shouldn’t or not doing things they should — are most likely the biggest ones. Like accidentally leaning on the keyboard before sending a bank transfer. The sketch is loosely based on a story, which is not true but illustrates the point nicely, that the Mongols got past the Great Wall simply by bribing the guards. If you like behavioural science, cognitive biases and the like, and want to build a better understanding of human risk, take a look at the human risk newsletter run by a long-time patron of Sketchplanations Christian Hunt. You can listen to a fun, example-packed conversation of human risk in our podcast episode on human risk with Christian Hunt.…In Don Norman’s classic book The Design of Everyday Things, Don gives an example of how to break into an office: just turn up at the door with a bunch of unwieldy computer equipment that looks difficult to carry and ask someone if they can open the door for you. Generally, someone will. Which goes to show no matter how well your system is designed, how seemingly impregnable your defences are, or how robust your processes, human risk — people doing things they shouldn’t or not doing things they should — are most likely the biggest ones. Like accidentally leaning on the keyboard before sending a bank transfer. The sketch is loosely based on a story, which is not true but illustrates the point nicely, that the Mongols got past the Great Wall simply by bribing the guards. If you like behavioural science, cognitive biases and the like, and want to build a better understanding of human risk, take a look at the human risk newsletter run by a long-time patron of Sketchplanations Christian Hunt. You can listen to a fun, example-packed conversation of human risk in our podcast episode on human risk with Christian Hunt.

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