Narrative bias

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Stories feel better than randomness — even when randomness may be the truth. Another reason that reading the papers is not always worth your time. This TEDx talk has a nice summary of a host of our common cognitive biases.

Published 30 Jan 2014

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Variable Rewards are remarkably powerful. Sometimes, you get something good. Sometimes, you get nothing. But every so often, it's something amazing. That unpredictability keeps us coming back. What Are Variable Rewards? A variable reward is a type of reward given unpredictably. You don't know exactly what you'll get or when—and that's what makes it so compelling. The randomness taps into our brain's reward system, creating a powerful loop of anticipation and surprise. Examples of Variable Rewards This kind of reward schedule—and variations in psychology, such as variable ratio reinforcement or intermittent variable rewards—is known for being highly addictive. It shows up everywhere in daily life and product design. Here are a few examples I've witnessed or experienced firsthand: The Reward Chest The reward chest, or comparable source of goodies, has proliferated in games. Here's how it can work: Each day, or few hours, there's another chance to open a reward chest. It's scarce—don't miss it. Most of the time, it gives you something standard. But once in a while, you open it to find something amazing — a rare weapon or skill. Better open just one more… The Email Inbox Mostly, it's standard stuff. Sometimes, it's great — an exciting job intro, a message from an old friend, a special offer. That occasional thrill keeps us checking in. I've noticed this with print sales of the sketches or new members on Patreon. From time to time someone places a big order—it could be tomorrow, it could be never again, or it could be this one time I check my inbox. Reviewing animal camera trap photos We were recently checking through the photos from a set of animal camera traps in a nearby park. Often, the camera trap was triggered by another crow or raven. But sometimes you get a badger or an animal looking right at you. And the next photo might have a hedgehog or a rare bird. Better just look at one more. Beachcombing Beaches are wonderful environments for serendipity (and play). It's always a joy walking along the strand line to see what you might find. There are usually a few lovely shells. Other times, there's nothing. But sometimes there's a crab. Or a starfish. Or once, a war relic. Maybe it'll be this time. The variable reward examples go on: Slot machines — just enough wins to keep you playing, with the occasional sound across the casino of a bumper win. Pret A Manger — employees could occasionally give a free coffee. If you got one once, there's always the chance it'll happen again. Pokémon cards — most cards are standard and just build up your deck, but there's always a shot at a rare card worth hundreds in the next pack you open. A generous compliment from your boss — might have you hoping the next project brings another. A surprise gesture of affection — from a friend or partner might keep you on the edge for more. Social posts — the one that blew up with thousands of likes. Maybe that'll be yours this time. Your football team — they don't win every week, but they win just enough to keep you dreaming that today might be a great day. Maybe even Sketchplanations — in most weeks, maybe you're ambivalent about the new one. But occasionally, it hits just right. Maybe next week's will. Variable Rewards in Nir Eyal's Hooked Nir Eyal discusses Variable Rewards as part of his Hook Model: Trigger > Action > (Variable) Reward > Investment Because the rewards are sporadic and unpredictable, we build anticipation before we act—and when a reward comes, it satisfies an emotional itch and fuels habit formation. Variable rewards can be much more engaging than predictable rewards. Nir Eyal breaks them into three types: Social rewards—feeling connected or admired (Rewards of the Tribe) Material or informational rewards—such as money or finding something (Rewards of the Hunt) Intrinsic rewards—mastering a challenge, beating a level (Rewards of the Self) Summary Variable rewards have the power to get us hooked. Life has intermittent variable rewards. However, some products and games are built around them deliberately. And I have come to realise that they are powerfully addictive. Please don't use them for evil. Related Ideas to Variable Rewards Also see: Narrative bias — stories feel better than randomness The Power of Streaks Addiction Yes Sayers, No Sayers Complaining at the Weather Rivers and Buckets Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy Mastery Purpose The Fun Scale…Variable Rewards are remarkably powerful. Sometimes, you get something good. Sometimes, you get nothing. But every so often, it's something amazing. That unpredictability keeps us coming back. What Are Variable Rewards? A variable reward is a type of reward given unpredictably. You don't know exactly what you'll get or when—and that's what makes it so compelling. The randomness taps into our brain's reward system, creating a powerful loop of anticipation and surprise. Examples of Variable Rewards This kind of reward schedule—and variations in psychology, such as variable ratio reinforcement or intermittent variable rewards—is known for being highly addictive. It shows up everywhere in daily life and product design. Here are a few examples I've witnessed or experienced firsthand: The Reward Chest The reward chest, or comparable source of goodies, has proliferated in games. Here's how it can work: Each day, or few hours, there's another chance to open a reward chest. It's scarce—don't miss it. Most of the time, it gives you something standard. But once in a while, you open it to find something amazing — a rare weapon or skill. Better open just one more… The Email Inbox Mostly, it's standard stuff. Sometimes, it's great — an exciting job intro, a message from an old friend, a special offer. That occasional thrill keeps us checking in. I've noticed this with print sales of the sketches or new members on Patreon. From time to time someone places a big order—it could be tomorrow, it could be never again, or it could be this one time I check my inbox. Reviewing animal camera trap photos We were recently checking through the photos from a set of animal camera traps in a nearby park. Often, the camera trap was triggered by another crow or raven. But sometimes you get a badger or an animal looking right at you. And the next photo might have a hedgehog or a rare bird. Better just look at one more. Beachcombing Beaches are wonderful environments for serendipity (and play). It's always a joy walking along the strand line to see what you might find. There are usually a few lovely shells. Other times, there's nothing. But sometimes there's a crab. Or a starfish. Or once, a war relic. Maybe it'll be this time. The variable reward examples go on: Slot machines — just enough wins to keep you playing, with the occasional sound across the casino of a bumper win. Pret A Manger — employees could occasionally give a free coffee. If you got one once, there's always the chance it'll happen again. Pokémon cards — most cards are standard and just build up your deck, but there's always a shot at a rare card worth hundreds in the next pack you open. A generous compliment from your boss — might have you hoping the next project brings another. A surprise gesture of affection — from a friend or partner might keep you on the edge for more. Social posts — the one that blew up with thousands of likes. Maybe that'll be yours this time. Your football team — they don't win every week, but they win just enough to keep you dreaming that today might be a great day. Maybe even Sketchplanations — in most weeks, maybe you're ambivalent about the new one. But occasionally, it hits just right. Maybe next week's will. Variable Rewards in Nir Eyal's Hooked Nir Eyal discusses Variable Rewards as part of his Hook Model: Trigger > Action > (Variable) Reward > Investment Because the rewards are sporadic and unpredictable, we build anticipation before we act—and when a reward comes, it satisfies an emotional itch and fuels habit formation. Variable rewards can be much more engaging than predictable rewards. Nir Eyal breaks them into three types: Social rewards—feeling connected or admired (Rewards of the Tribe) Material or informational rewards—such as money or finding something (Rewards of the Hunt) Intrinsic rewards—mastering a challenge, beating a level (Rewards of the Self) Summary Variable rewards have the power to get us hooked. Life has intermittent variable rewards. However, some products and games are built around them deliberately. And I have come to realise that they are powerfully addictive. Please don't use them for evil. Related Ideas to Variable Rewards Also see: Narrative bias — stories feel better than randomness The Power of Streaks Addiction Yes Sayers, No Sayers Complaining at the Weather Rivers and Buckets Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy Mastery Purpose The Fun Scale

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